The European logistics property market is suffering from the corona crisis. Take-up of logistics real estate in the nine main markets, including the Netherlands, will be up to 46 per cent lower than in 2019.
That is what real estate consultancy Buck Consultants International (BCI) predicts based on a study in which 25 logistics property developers, investors, brokers and experts participated. Nine countries were surveyed: Germany, France, the UK, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain and the Czech Republic.
Decline dependent on when situation normalises
These nine logistics markets had a combined take-up volume of 23.5 million square metres in 2019. Early this year, this take-up volume was expected to remain more or less stable in 2020 (23.4 million square metres). However, due to the Covid-19 outbreak, BCI expects a decline to 15.9 million square metres (-32 per cent) or even 12.8 million square metres (-46 per cent). The decline hinges on when the health situation returns to normal. In calculating the percentages, BCI assumed October 2020 and January 2021, respectively.
Expected take-up level in 2020 (in mlnm2)
'Logistics heartland of Europe' notices less of crisis
The situation varies by country. Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, the countries seen as the logistics heartland of Europe, are less hard hit than the southern European countries.
BCI further expects property rents in many logistics markets to remain at current levels this year. The development of mega distribution centres (with an area of at least 40,000 square metres) will also continue, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Companies interviewed indicated that they see the Netherlands, Germany and Poland as favourite locations for XXL DCs. The development of urban distribution centres also continues across Europe.
